Numbers


Over the last few weeks, several numbers have grabbed my attention for various reasons.  The numbers are 10,000;  5000; and 13.  All three numbers are important to some degree…but in the grand scheme of things, not very important at all.  In fact, all three are just a memorable marking point for a particular fact.

First, let's discuss the number 10,000.  A few weeks ago, we hit 10,000 on the Dow…again.  The media celebrated and tried to make it a big deal.  Most investors took note and then went back to their daily routines.    

10,000 on the Dow is purely a psychological number.  It doesn't mean anything to the markets, and it shouldn't mean anything to investors.  It's just a marking point along a very long road.  I have had investors tell me that "once it gets back to 10,000…" or "if it goes below 10,000" then I'm going to…(buy, sell, get in, get out, etc).  If you ever catch yourself saying something like that, ask yourself what the significance of the number might be.  

It's a large, round number that draws attention for that reason only.  It doesn't give us any directional information.  In fact, since the Dow hit 10,000 on October 14th, we've crossed that point 7 times since.  It may go higher.  It may go lower.  When you look at a Dow around 6500 (where we were in March), Dow 10,000 seems like the top of a distant mountain.  When you look at a Dow around 14,000 (where we were in October 2007), Dow 10,000 looks like a dark place where we don't want to go.  The significance of the number depends on your perspective.

It's the same thing with the other two numbers…5000 and 13.  As a financial planner and investment manager, it probably doesn't surprise anyone that I'm kind of a numbers-guy.  But I am also a runner and my interest in numbers related to my running could probably be categorized as anal.  I keep records of all of my runs and record a lot of data.

I became a runner late in life.  My wife and I started running in 2003.  Last month, I logged mile number 5000.  Like Dow 10,000, it is a big round number that drew some attention…but only from me and those around me that I subject to my scorekeeping.  Also like Dow 10,000, my 5000 really doesn't mean anything.  To some, it may seem like a lot.  To others, it's not that much.  To me, it's a memorable marking point on what I hope is a much larger number in the future.

And finally…13.  Even though I came to running later in life, I embraced it with gusto.  I have set a goal for myself to run a marathon in each one of the 50 states that make up our country.  Last weekend I completed the Indianapolis Monumental Marathon, which marked my 13th different state.  Once again, for some that number will seem like a lot.  For others, it won't seem like all that much.  To me, it's another marking point…and it serves to remind me how far I've come in a few short years.

My three numbers are similar in a lot of ways.  They are all milestones and whether they seem large or small depends on your perspective.  But there is one major difference.  While we may see Dow 10,000 again (and again?); my 5000 and 13 numbers can only get bigger. 

Moral of the story?  Don't get wrapped up in details that don't matter.  The keys to a successful investment strategy have nothing to do with where the Dow is…or isn't.  And a successful running career will build upon many memorable milestones.

Are there any numbers particularly important to you?  Why? 


 

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